AI Layoffs: When Future Potential Reshapes Today
When I read the title of the Harvard Business Review article, ‘Companies Are Laying Off Workers Because of AI’s Potential—Not Its Performance’, it struck me like a lightning bolt. It is not the first time I’ve encountered analyses on the impact of artificial intelligence on the job market, but this perspective, I must admit, made me reflect deeply. The common narrative tends to link layoffs to automation already achieved, to tasks that AI already performs better and faster than humans. But what if the cause were more insidious, more strategic, more… preemptive? It is a question that, in my role as Editor-in-Chief of Cortex News, I feel compelled to explore with you.
The Potential vs. Current Performance Paradox
The distinction is crucial. AI ‘performance’ refers to what technology is *already capable of doing*, to concretely implemented efficiencies and automations that generate a measurable return on investment. ‘Potential’, on the other hand, is the realm of expectations, future projections, and capabilities that AI *could have* with further development, investment, and deeper integration. What HBR suggests is that companies are acting not based on what AI has already proven it can replace or improve, but in anticipation of what it will do. It is a gamble, a long-term planning effort that has immediate repercussions.
Why Are Companies Acting Early?
Several factors can push companies toward this proactive move. First, there is competitive pressure and the need to be perceived as innovators. ‘AI-first’ has become a mantra, and the desire to position oneself as a leader in AI adoption can lead to drastic decisions. Second, there is a long-term cost optimization logic. Even if AI is not yet fully operational or at maximum efficiency, reducing headcount now can be seen as a step toward a leaner, ‘future-proofed’ operational structure ready to fully embrace AI capabilities as they mature. Finally, the very uncertainty of the technological future prompts caution: better to prepare for the worst (or the most radical change) than to be caught unprepared.
The Impact on the Workforce: An Uncertain Future Today
This approach creates an unprecedented climate of anxiety and precariousness. Workers find themselves competing not only with current machines, but with future, yet-nonexistent versions of those machines. It is no longer just about retraining for tasks that AI cannot do today, but about anticipating what it might do tomorrow. This type of ‘preventive layoff’ is not just economic; it is psychological. It threatens the stability of the labor market, demanding deep reflection on how we can prepare for an era where business decisions are driven by technological forecasts rather than concrete facts.
In my view, this dynamic reveals a crucial and potentially dangerous phase in AI adoption. We are not talking about an organic evolution where real efficiency drives change, but a gold rush based on projections and promises. This approach, while understandable from a corporate strategy standpoint, risks creating a huge gap between potential hype and work reality, generating anxiety and insecurity. The question I ask myself, and want to pose to you as well, is: how can we prepare the labor market and workers for a transformation driven not by the present, but by a still uncertain and rapidly evolving future?